Divining Stats

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Those who divine the stats set the benchmarks, and control the discussion.
 

So what are we talking about here?
I'll provide two examples, and you are at liberty to connect any dots you can fancy.
But for me, the generalized propositions articulated in the first line hold true.

Example 1ne is the Palestinian death count post Oct.7, 2023 - which is when there was an invasion of Israel, and much death and loss, apparently at the hands of the Gaza Hamas.

The death count was provided by the Health Authority for Gaza - whose ties to the Hamas leadership, wherever they might be, is unknown to me. In effect it was the Health Authority that were 'divining' the stats.
The Health Authority was in there early.
While I can not be sure, I think they were out of the blocks if not the next day, only a day later.

I know this because I was paying some attention to the mainstream media - well known daily papers (mostly US & Canada), satellite TV stations, online radio, podcasts, - immediately following the October 7 invasion.

The media reports were quick to pick up the stats.
Those folks are usually delirious about body counts. Like, how objective can you get, and y'know that media love their objectivity.

Initially the press were inflexible in citing the source of their body count declarations. They made sure you knew that their source was the Health Authority, and that was usually followed by some cautionary postdictum.

These days (75 or so days later) its a little different from the media.
Of course, the numbers keeping growing. Relentlessly day after day. Hundreds quickly became thousands. We're now up to 20,000 Palestinians, give or take.
But the citing of sources now seems rare or absent. And not surprisingly no cautionary quip to take care about giving weight to the stats.
It's not just that the stat is voiced so confidently buy the talking heads. But the stats seem to take on more authority, or legitimacy - because, in part, there is no competition.
One could easily form the impression that no one else is counting - or divining.

Seems clear to me that the Hamas were divining the stats, that is generating them, and circulating them, and were as a consequence setting the bench marks and controlling the discussion.

Example 2wo. Identification of Dental Procedures (for billing purposes and more)
These stats were first developed by the occupational special interest group - (name of jurisdiction) Dental Association. Note that these Associations are voluntary organizations. No obligation to participate or pay. They do not 'govern' the members of the underlying profession (which is done by the College of Dentists or some similarly named outfit.)

More to come...

Probabilities for Scenario Planners

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Catalyzed by the current NEWS of the aborted armed revolt in Russia by Wagner Group's Prigoshyn...

 

6 months ago
what probability would you have put
on the prospect of Prigoshyn commanding 25,000 troops headed towards Moscow, getting 200 miles along and taking control of a Russian base within an 'occupied' area, with a stated view of heading for Moscow
to shake things up with the Russian military institutions and leaders.

Maybe 5%
More probably you would have evaluated these events of being very very unlikely,
say a half of one percent or maybe only 1 in a thousand or less.

And what probability would you have put on the extended scenario that, given the above revolt, 
less than 36 hours along,
P orders his troops to stop, then retreat to their regular bases,
with P. being exiled to Belorussia.

Maybe 5%.
More probably you'd have estimated the prospect of such a scenario as much less.
Again, say 1 in a hundred or thousand.

And yet both these events took place.
Highly improbable events do happen these days.

Constitutional. explained

 These days I use the word ‘constitutional’ regularly.

I’ve been keeping a daily Planner/archive since retirement (the new year), and each day is a distinct entry.

Almost invariably the first check off item is referenced by the word ‘constitutional’.

It’s just one word, but it packs quite an extended meaning for me.  Allow me to expand on that.

It describes a routine with, say, a half dozen components. There is but little variation in the number or nature of the components on any given day - which to me suggested the naming outcome.

The starting point for the routine is my feet hitting the floor after a period of horizontal rest. Then is goes something like this.

Relieve bladder. Likely light up a smoke.

Move phone, laptop/tablet, smokes and lighter to WC. Set up mini table.

Take drugs. 3 varieties, 4 pills, two handfuls of water. 

Get breakfast. Kuerig coffee 10oz. Toasted bread or bagel or ciabatta with either peanut butter or cold cuts or leftover protein. 

Retire to throne for a dump.

All the while scanning the morning reads:

Gmail - inbox, Sudbury Now Obits in detail, ALDaily home page items, then from there The Globe and Mail (subscribed), The New York Times (subscribed), and perhaps the Sudbury Star front page, The Guardian, or the National Post. This is a 40 minute read or sometimes better.

From the Throne, it’s straight to the shower. Nice and warm. Scope out the window for weather, or novelties, or usually just confirmation the world is still spinning. 

Clean body starting with butt with the shower head hand held. Usually finish with hair shampoo. Half the days see me shave in the civilized fountain of a warm shower with a Bic 3 blade razor and shaving cream from the aerosol can. 

After turning off the water I use the face cloth (warmed and rung out) to get the excess water off me. 3 wrings usually do it. I dry each foot leisurely while balanced on the other foot.

Out of the tub, I use a hand towel to finish drying. Now I am looking in the mirror. Give my hairs a brush.

Tidy up, and relocate stuff to main space counter. 

And that’s the Constitutional. And let me assure you, there is a certain satisfaction in picking up a pencil to check off that box. Very propitious.

 

The Biggest Mystery

 Bell Media and their sub TSN must take the cake for providing the Biggest Mystery in modern day commerce.

I got seduced, briefly I hasten to add, to slipping in through one of their portals.
Thanks the heavens it was only briefly.
I was seduced because what they were selling I was into buying. Or more specifically, exploring the idea of buying. I am in a situation where I am looking at rearranging my TV supplier. Getting reliable live sports is on my wish list. TSN will fit the bill. 

To make a decision allz I need to know are how much and for how long.
Their unsolicited screen ad was offering a Special, Deal.

So I clicked on the bait.
And of course, scanned the screen for answers to the questions.
I fancy myself a good scanner - complete with serious on the job training a few decades back.

The answers were not obvious. T'was a complete mystery.
Each screen offered a couple of dozen click choices for more info. None of the tab titles held much promise, so I clicked the best fit as I imagined it.
No success. I did this repeatedly. Maybe 20 times. A Big Mystery.

At 10 false steps, I knew the gig was up. I was not going to get the answer for free.
But I persisted. Why ? 'Cuz I was mesmerized by their audacity and boldness and disingenuity.
Fuck 'em.

It just blows my mind that the key questions most viewers have is not addressed at all, with those many, many screens of bumpf.
And worse in my view - they don't tell you they are not going to tell you.!!!!

For me that is a breach of a psychological contract between the merchant and the potential customer.
There is a term of that contract that neither will intentionally waste the time of the other.
Bell/TSN breach this term in spades.

Here is the Faustian bargain they lure one into.
You get to find out the price and terms of the plan that allows you to watch streaming sports,
only after you have committed and consented to a few items, and have handed over all sots of very personal information that allows Bell/TSN to have its way with you.

You consent to allow them to inundate you with emails, texts, & ads, schlepping their shit.

You consent to allow them to take money from your card or bank as they see fit - in advance of getting their service.

It may be worth noting that in no way is Bell/TSN the creator of such a shameless ruse.
Nor are they alone in the world of e-commerce for such tactics.
But my latest foray with them suggests they are perfecting the scheme.

I say, somethings are better left as mysteries.

iPad Inauguration

 Yesterday I received this iPad.

I am now trying out the onscreen key board.

It seems a little easier than the other real keyboard, though it is “touchy” as in pretty sensitive.

We’ll see how it goes. But overall I’m pleasantly surprised how convenient it is.

More later….

Amber. A Wondrous Material

 This is an item about some reflections on Amber, a wondrous natural material.

I'm so intrigued by amber, that I'm keen to learn a lot more about it.
Could this be my retirement pursuit that's worthy of such attention, I wonder.

Amber is the hardened resin from plants such as pine trees. It's magical for many reasons, but one of them is that it can be transparent. One can see straight through some pieces, and see things that have been trapped within the amber - like insects.

Could there be a way to 'monetize' an interest in Amber?
The answer is almost surely Yes, provided one devoted sufficient attention to the project.
The entrepreneurial spirits are juiced at the notion.

Another appealing feature of amber is its durability.
Durable as long lasting.
Would you believe that a lot of the amber we can now see was created a few hundred Million years ago?
Almost (?) unimaginable. 

An old Q & A game featured a typical question: Is the object: Animal, vegetable or mineral ? (implying that those were the only true answers available.)
In this context, amber is a vegetable (tree resin) masquerading as a mineral (like glass).

My current understanding is that natural amber is 'mined'. That is taken from the ground, often deep in the ground. It has been fragmented over the eons, and is now mixed with minerals (sand, or sandstone, or rock like stuff). The fragments are smallish - not unlike gold nuggets in a gravel bottomed stream.

Miners separate the rocks from the resin. Then they sell the resin bits, after some processing, as amber.
Jewellery makers fashion some great treasures from the amber - which can be reheated, and molded and worked.

I wonder if there would be an interest, or market, for amber trinkets with custom inserts baked into the stuff. Perhaps a locket of hair. Or a four leaf clover. Or an image of a loved one.
The object would be visible, with clarity, yet encased in a plant based product, millions of years in the making, and good for a few more million years.

 

And Counting...

 A  topic that could lead to many ideas for short pieces

and to start...

25,000,000,000

Number of the Week.

For folks who don't care for all those digits, especially the zeros, the Number of the Week is more conveniently written - 25 Billion.

Less conveniently, one could also say 25 thousand millions. And that's a lot.

Now it turns out that there's an interesting statistic involving 25 billion, in the field of energy.
Energy is frequently measured in kilowatt hours.

A kilowatt hour is 1,000 watts of energy maintained over a period of one hour.
So if you had a 1 kilowatt of energy, the electrical kind, then you could keep a 1,000 watt lightbulb shining bright for 1 hour. Or if you had 10 lightbulbs of 100 watts each, you'd get one hour of good light till the energy ran out.

Now try and imagine 25 billion kilowatt hours of electrical energy.
One way to do that is to imagine the world's 8 billion people. And you can then imagine each person in the world, man woman and child, rich or poor, each running a 100 watt lightbulb - then there would be enough electricity in 25 billion kilowatts for that person to keep the light on for a month at an hour a day.

Ahh, you say, but where would that energy come from?
Well it could be the electrical grid. In turn that energy might have come from a natural gas fired electrical plant, or from waterfalls (hydro electricity) or from a nuclear reactor.

But here's the neat thing.
In theory you could get that energy from a single kilogram of bananas. That's like 6 bananas.
Yup, just six bananas hold enough Energy to make 25 Billion kilowatts of electricity. It's just the conversion thingy that's the hurdle.

Know that this theory has wide spread acceptance in the scientific community. Virtually universal approval.
And the theory is most famously expressed by Albert Einstein's equation:
e=mC2  or energy is equal to the mass multiplied by the speed of light, squared.

And now to repeat the reveal.
One kilogram of bananas (mass) holds the energy of 25 billion kilowatt hours.

Society's mission should now be clear.
Let's find a practical way to get that energy out of the bananas.