Reading - April 2024

 Yes, a post about what I'm reading these days.
Perhaps to serve as an aide memoire.
Keeping the books on a shelf in house also serves as such an aid, but this note should represent an improvement.

Two books came into my hands yesterday, a Saturday. From Bay Used Books, just a short walk from the house.
Ten bucks a book. Not as economical as the library, but a bargain nevertheless.
Both came from the same shelf in the overcrowded, claustraphobic, lower level, entitled Science.

The Social Conquest of Earth - Edward O. Wilson
This item from a highly respected science synthesizer, researcher, and thinker offers a bold, newish theory on the importance of social organization in the evolution of our species.
I've been alert to EOWilson for some time. Many of the other authors I've read have held him in high regard, and have quoted him reverentially. His most famous work (incl. Pulitzer Prize) was about ants and their social organization.
I was recently alerted to his theory about the role of social organization in human evolution in some other reads. The topic intrigues me. And it resonates.
I don't care much for Wilson's habit of introducing tree hugger notions into his work. In this regard, I find his arguments unconvincing - but I still leave a tiny space in my head for revision.
I've only just cracked the spine (it's condition suggested no one had done this before).
More perhaps later....

The Undoing Project. - Michael Lewis
This book combines the work of an author I enjoy (Liar's Poker, among others), with a subject (the work of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Twersky) that I have followed with approval.
The subject authors received a near Nobel for Economics a few years back.
Some of their unique notions were explained in their book which I have Thinking Fast, Thinking Slow or some such title.
Coincidentally Kahneman died last month with positive obits in high circulation English language print media.
Lewis is a writer who produces compelling prose.
I recently read his book on Sam Bankman Fried  of FTX notoriety ( Sam is currently serving 25 years for fraud, - conviction under appeal). Fascinating story - obscene instant wealth mixed with Effective Altruism and skull-duggery.

These two projects will no doubt keep me in print for a month or more.

Stock Stuff

 So I latched on to a rubber (like) end cap and pondered it.
It came from some old drug paraphenalia, namely a small plastic water pipe that had been used as a hash storage container.
The pipe makers had selected this part to be the bottom of the vessel containing the mouthful of water the pipe required. The end cap neatly and snugly fit over one end of the cheap plastic cylinder that was the vessel.

The end cap seemed generic. This notion was reinforced by the embossed text on the end cap. 5 lines of text, all but the first line alphanumeric code. (eg.    MS90376-24R  )

I imagine the piece came off of a shelf. A shelf at the manufacturer's site.
And I imagine that the manufacturer had made and inventoried lots of similar pieces, with similar but distinct text/code embossed on them.

I also imagine that the piece was inexpensive, in a relative sense, for the pipe maker to obtain.
And part of that pricing outcome was surely due to the 'generic' nature of the part.
I imagine the manufacturer sold that very part to lots of folks in different companies, for a whole bunch of different applications and uses. It was not a single purpose part. And the manufacturer had figured that out. And somehow the pipe maker discovered the piece or the manufacturer and was pleased that she did.

What's my point?
Well I'm advocating that these opportunities to explore cheap, generic parts be more convenient.
And I can see it coming not that far off.

With artificial intelligence type software that is all the rage in the mainstream media these days. This being a year post intro of Chat gpt.

I can imagine a creative type, a maker type, just browsing cheap, generic parts.
In a visually pleasing, effectively communicating, hyper convenient format (even as to ordering, payment  and delivery.)
Novel assemblies and uses might well result. And that would be a good thing.

So ends this piece.

Trump & the US Legal System

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This last few years stateside has seen (for those interested) a remarkable cacophony of legal cases featuring The Donald. 

I daresay these cases have really dominated the media world . 

And that means that the media have had the job of reporting on, and explaining legal stuff to their audiences.

Interestingly these cases are not the regular kind. They are complex. They are relatively novel. And for sure they are of high stakes.

The reporting is exposing large segments of the  public, both literate and illiterate, to the intricacies and delicacies and the US legal system.

Most in the audience are eager to earn The (final) Verdicts.
There is little comfort in saying The Matter is still before the Courts.

Allegations are one thing. Investigations another. Indictments yet another. Trial decisions will result but are not necessarily final. The appeal process itself is notoriously complex and varied by jurisdiction and other factors.

And one thing we are all learning in this circus, is that working through the legal system can take quite a long time. We are also being reminded that it takes a whole whack of cash to play the legal games (with lawyers, courts, judges, juries, and clerks/functionaires).   [Recently reported that for the period 2020 till the end of 2023, Donald had burned through $50,000,000.00 on lawyers - the funds coming from campaign raised funds]

And as observers of the situation and the system it is sensible to ask: How's the system functioning? Is it effective and efficient? Is it fair and just? 

Some say, me included, that the system is not effective, nor efficient. and partly for those reasons it is not as fair and just as it should be.
Mostly because the processes take too long and cost too much, which in turn compromises fairness and justice.

The legal systems have long had these characteristics. Trumps cases are serving to illuminate the problems.
Which is a good thing for the general public, so that they might have better insight into the systems that ultimately decide the issues.

I hope one outcome of the circus is that the public, and its leaders, take steps to reform the system.
And for me, the focus really ought to be on reducing the time to get to a sensible outcome.

Coincidentally, the Immigration chaos stateside may be related to the time the system there takes to deal with claims of refugee status. Its not uncommon for such cases to take 5 years or more to get to a hearing on the merits (a court hearing where both sides present their case). Some of Trump's cases have been on the go for 4 years, and with no conclusion imminent !

 The catch is that the public, and its leaders, will have to make some really difficult choices - that strive to find the right balance between the interests of the various litigants, and also the public.
Insisting that cases move more quickly invariably leads to cries of unfairness from one or more of the parties/litigants, or the Courts.

The balance point has to change. We need less perfect, and more now.

Happily there was just a news report that a US Federal Appeals Court tightened up good on a Trump appeal - dealing with question: Is Trump immune from prosecution by reason of holding the office of President?  They kept appeal opportunity open - but gave T just 7 days to get reply from US Supreme Court to take up case, elsewise it would move forward. Very clever. Very helpful. Maybe a sign of things to come.

 

 

 

 

An Adventuure to the Ft. L Home Show & also Meds

 Day 25 (about) in Florida in a modest unit complete with electricity and WiFi. And the smallest goddamn shower I've ever been in.

I just snorted a line. Quite out of the ordinary till about 2 weeks ago. Have probably done 8 lines in that time with 2 or 3 more left in the pouch. That's cuz I couldn't score any regular pot (delta9THC kind). Though I have gone through a fair bit of what I might call faux pot since being stateside.  I note that it was quite coincidental/random that I came across the opportunity to buy some powder - after a few disappointments trying to get delta9. A separate story. (tags - NYC Maarge, Kim's Alley Bar, Irish whiskey shots, urinal encounter)

Have actually been playing around / experimenting / exploring different consciousness altering shit this last couple of weeks.

It's to be noted that this is in the context of having a meaningfully long, statistically-relevant long, run with delta9THC. Arguably (and perhaps not convincingly) that would be a 50 year run. And easily the median frequency would have been at least once daily during that time.

'Manipulating consciousness' it might be called. I don't know how else to pin it down to a phrase.
I've long been fascinated by our (human's) ability to tweak, or disrupt normal consciousness.

Think cocktail hour - for my parents time.
For toddlers it's twirling around in a tight circle till you are dizzy and falling.
All self induced - messing with your own head. Which happens at a crazy nano, molecular level.

 And for me this last 3 weeks I've been learning about, and trying, gummies and dried flower touting / declaring delta8THC, and THCa and a coulple of other variations as key psychotropic molecules.
These hold some promise, but are definitely lighter in their impact - as in one gets less fucked up.

I find it tough to believe the current state of affairs with pot. So much has changed recently. The legislation represents one basket of changes, pharmacology advances is another bucket, as is the cultural/societal situation.
Florida has its own regime. Yes to medicinal - with a doc's OK. No to recreational.
But the business folk have latched on to the THC variations as a pretty-close-workaround. Mostly, but not totally legal - plenty of room for 'interpretation'. Now all sorts of 'Vape Shops" have appeared, hustling this faux stuff, and getting quite a bit of traction.

Today I went to the Home Show at the main Convention Center in the region.
A little frustrating to get there, even though I had done my (some?) homework, on bus routes and bus stops.
The County has a decent passenger app - but regrettably I did not have access to it away from WiFi - as in anywhere outdoors. Next time I come here, I really should consider cell service, with data. Critical for Uber, bus apps, weather, maps, and other mobile (walk around) needs.

I was over 2 hours and 20 minutes to travel there. !!!
A 22 minute walk to the bus stop. Turns out it was the wrong stop by 75 meters. Cost me 45 minutes plus.

It was an hour 37 minutes waiting for the bus.
Then a 22 minute bus ride. ($1 - senior)

Then about a 20 minute walk to find the freaking place. No signs. Not pedestrian friendly. Indeed pedestrian hostile.

Then a little less than an hour and a half wandering about the show. Saw some neat stuff.
Live edge wood applications. Japanese screens - vertical operation. Quartzite slabs with light sources behind - to observe translucence. Every kind of recliner. Sparkling outdoor kitchens ($15k - $20k range). Rubberized, troweled on flooring ($16/sqft). Beach sand rugs. Pinball machine ($8k).
15 minutes to get an Uber., followed by an 18 minute ride.

Not a bad way to spend some time, seeing the business folk and their wares, and catching up on developments.
But this show was, frankly, underwhelming. I think I'd prefer a show with international aspirations and suppliers.

Then back to the nest.
All told, till then, 7,000 steps - a good day.

Nuff for this recording.
I might say, I have this clear sense that the snorted line gave me a little extra juice to advance this recording, without which there may have been little recorded.

Divining Stats

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Those who divine the stats set the benchmarks, and control the discussion.
 

So what are we talking about here?
I'll provide two examples, and you are at liberty to connect any dots you can fancy.
But for me, the generalized propositions articulated in the first line hold true.

Example 1ne is the Palestinian death count post Oct.7, 2023 - which is when there was an invasion of Israel, and much death and loss, apparently at the hands of the Gaza Hamas.

The death count was provided by the Health Authority for Gaza - whose ties to the Hamas leadership, wherever they might be, is unknown to me. In effect it was the Health Authority that were 'divining' the stats.
The Health Authority was in there early.
While I can not be sure, I think they were out of the blocks if not the next day, only a day later.

I know this because I was paying some attention to the mainstream media - well known daily papers (mostly US & Canada), satellite TV stations, online radio, podcasts, - immediately following the October 7 invasion.

The media reports were quick to pick up the stats.
Those folks are usually delirious about body counts. Like, how objective can you get, and y'know that media love their objectivity.

Initially the press were inflexible in citing the source of their body count declarations. They made sure you knew that their source was the Health Authority, and that was usually followed by some cautionary postdictum.

These days (75 or so days later) its a little different from the media.
Of course, the numbers keeping growing. Relentlessly day after day. Hundreds quickly became thousands. We're now up to 20,000 Palestinians, give or take.
But the citing of sources now seems rare or absent. And not surprisingly no cautionary quip to take care about giving weight to the stats.
It's not just that the stat is voiced so confidently buy the talking heads. But the stats seem to take on more authority, or legitimacy - because, in part, there is no competition.
One could easily form the impression that no one else is counting - or divining.

Seems clear to me that the Hamas were divining the stats, that is generating them, and circulating them, and were as a consequence setting the bench marks and controlling the discussion.

Example 2wo. Identification of Dental Procedures (for billing purposes and more)
These stats were first developed by the occupational special interest group - (name of jurisdiction) Dental Association. Note that these Associations are voluntary organizations. No obligation to participate or pay. They do not 'govern' the members of the underlying profession (which is done by the College of Dentists or some similarly named outfit.)

More to come...

Probabilities for Scenario Planners

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Catalyzed by the current NEWS of the aborted armed revolt in Russia by Wagner Group's Prigoshyn...

 

6 months ago
what probability would you have put
on the prospect of Prigoshyn commanding 25,000 troops headed towards Moscow, getting 200 miles along and taking control of a Russian base within an 'occupied' area, with a stated view of heading for Moscow
to shake things up with the Russian military institutions and leaders.

Maybe 5%
More probably you would have evaluated these events of being very very unlikely,
say a half of one percent or maybe only 1 in a thousand or less.

And what probability would you have put on the extended scenario that, given the above revolt, 
less than 36 hours along,
P orders his troops to stop, then retreat to their regular bases,
with P. being exiled to Belorussia.

Maybe 5%.
More probably you'd have estimated the prospect of such a scenario as much less.
Again, say 1 in a hundred or thousand.

And yet both these events took place.
Highly improbable events do happen these days.

Constitutional. explained

 These days I use the word ‘constitutional’ regularly.

I’ve been keeping a daily Planner/archive since retirement (the new year), and each day is a distinct entry.

Almost invariably the first check off item is referenced by the word ‘constitutional’.

It’s just one word, but it packs quite an extended meaning for me.  Allow me to expand on that.

It describes a routine with, say, a half dozen components. There is but little variation in the number or nature of the components on any given day - which to me suggested the naming outcome.

The starting point for the routine is my feet hitting the floor after a period of horizontal rest. Then is goes something like this.

Relieve bladder. Likely light up a smoke.

Move phone, laptop/tablet, smokes and lighter to WC. Set up mini table.

Take drugs. 3 varieties, 4 pills, two handfuls of water. 

Get breakfast. Kuerig coffee 10oz. Toasted bread or bagel or ciabatta with either peanut butter or cold cuts or leftover protein. 

Retire to throne for a dump.

All the while scanning the morning reads:

Gmail - inbox, Sudbury Now Obits in detail, ALDaily home page items, then from there The Globe and Mail (subscribed), The New York Times (subscribed), and perhaps the Sudbury Star front page, The Guardian, or the National Post. This is a 40 minute read or sometimes better.

From the Throne, it’s straight to the shower. Nice and warm. Scope out the window for weather, or novelties, or usually just confirmation the world is still spinning. 

Clean body starting with butt with the shower head hand held. Usually finish with hair shampoo. Half the days see me shave in the civilized fountain of a warm shower with a Bic 3 blade razor and shaving cream from the aerosol can. 

After turning off the water I use the face cloth (warmed and rung out) to get the excess water off me. 3 wrings usually do it. I dry each foot leisurely while balanced on the other foot.

Out of the tub, I use a hand towel to finish drying. Now I am looking in the mirror. Give my hairs a brush.

Tidy up, and relocate stuff to main space counter. 

And that’s the Constitutional. And let me assure you, there is a certain satisfaction in picking up a pencil to check off that box. Very propitious.