Probabilities for Scenario Planners

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Catalyzed by the current NEWS of the aborted armed revolt in Russia by Wagner Group's Prigoshyn...

 

6 months ago
what probability would you have put
on the prospect of Prigoshyn commanding 25,000 troops headed towards Moscow, getting 200 miles along and taking control of a Russian base within an 'occupied' area, with a stated view of heading for Moscow
to shake things up with the Russian military institutions and leaders.

Maybe 5%
More probably you would have evaluated these events of being very very unlikely,
say a half of one percent or maybe only 1 in a thousand or less.

And what probability would you have put on the extended scenario that, given the above revolt, 
less than 36 hours along,
P orders his troops to stop, then retreat to their regular bases,
with P. being exiled to Belorussia.

Maybe 5%.
More probably you'd have estimated the prospect of such a scenario as much less.
Again, say 1 in a hundred or thousand.

And yet both these events took place.
Highly improbable events do happen these days.