Probabilities for Scenario Planners

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Catalyzed by the current NEWS of the aborted armed revolt in Russia by Wagner Group's Prigoshyn...

 

6 months ago
what probability would you have put
on the prospect of Prigoshyn commanding 25,000 troops headed towards Moscow, getting 200 miles along and taking control of a Russian base within an 'occupied' area, with a stated view of heading for Moscow
to shake things up with the Russian military institutions and leaders.

Maybe 5%
More probably you would have evaluated these events of being very very unlikely,
say a half of one percent or maybe only 1 in a thousand or less.

And what probability would you have put on the extended scenario that, given the above revolt, 
less than 36 hours along,
P orders his troops to stop, then retreat to their regular bases,
with P. being exiled to Belorussia.

Maybe 5%.
More probably you'd have estimated the prospect of such a scenario as much less.
Again, say 1 in a hundred or thousand.

And yet both these events took place.
Highly improbable events do happen these days.

Constitutional. explained

 These days I use the word ‘constitutional’ regularly.

I’ve been keeping a daily Planner/archive since retirement (the new year), and each day is a distinct entry.

Almost invariably the first check off item is referenced by the word ‘constitutional’.

It’s just one word, but it packs quite an extended meaning for me.  Allow me to expand on that.

It describes a routine with, say, a half dozen components. There is but little variation in the number or nature of the components on any given day - which to me suggested the naming outcome.

The starting point for the routine is my feet hitting the floor after a period of horizontal rest. Then is goes something like this.

Relieve bladder. Likely light up a smoke.

Move phone, laptop/tablet, smokes and lighter to WC. Set up mini table.

Take drugs. 3 varieties, 4 pills, two handfuls of water. 

Get breakfast. Kuerig coffee 10oz. Toasted bread or bagel or ciabatta with either peanut butter or cold cuts or leftover protein. 

Retire to throne for a dump.

All the while scanning the morning reads:

Gmail - inbox, Sudbury Now Obits in detail, ALDaily home page items, then from there The Globe and Mail (subscribed), The New York Times (subscribed), and perhaps the Sudbury Star front page, The Guardian, or the National Post. This is a 40 minute read or sometimes better.

From the Throne, it’s straight to the shower. Nice and warm. Scope out the window for weather, or novelties, or usually just confirmation the world is still spinning. 

Clean body starting with butt with the shower head hand held. Usually finish with hair shampoo. Half the days see me shave in the civilized fountain of a warm shower with a Bic 3 blade razor and shaving cream from the aerosol can. 

After turning off the water I use the face cloth (warmed and rung out) to get the excess water off me. 3 wrings usually do it. I dry each foot leisurely while balanced on the other foot.

Out of the tub, I use a hand towel to finish drying. Now I am looking in the mirror. Give my hairs a brush.

Tidy up, and relocate stuff to main space counter. 

And that’s the Constitutional. And let me assure you, there is a certain satisfaction in picking up a pencil to check off that box. Very propitious.